The Disruptive Potential of Software as a Service: Validation and Application of an Ex-Ante Methodology

We address current discussions on the potential of cloud computing to disrupt the structures of the software industry by selecting, validating and further developing a method for ex-ante identification of disruptive innovations that we imported from innovation management theory into the information systems area. Based on a review of a previous forecast in the area of web applications, we could show that this method was able to predict the likelihood for web applications to pose a minor disruptive threat to incumbents in the industry. Furthermore, we adapted and modified this method and applied it to the cloud computing market through the example of CRM software and the firms Salesforce and SAP. Our results indicate that Salesforce's on-demand software products in the CRM market show a high disruptive potential but at the same time the method also reveals that SAP response strategy limits its possible failure to this